Super Tuesday’s Huckabee Surprise

The pundits had ignored Mike Huckabee since Florida. Then, on Tuesday night, the GOP voters throughout the Super Tuesday states went to the polls and voted en masse for the candidate who most shares their views and who brings back the Reagan luster to the Grand Old Party. Mike Huckabee’s showing on Tuesday night was nothing short of spectacular. Working with a limited campaign budget, written off for dead by the national media, disparaged by the conservative chattering class who opined that a “vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain” Mike Huckabee showed that substance matters more than glitter and glamor. The Huckabee Revolution within the GOP is a very real phenomenon and those pundits who fail to recognize this groundswell will be forced to admit their lack of prescience as the Huckabee Republicans continue to assert greater influence on the direction of the Party. This year the grip of Wall Street and special interests, and even of talk radio hosts who are clueless about the mainstream of America, has been broken. Mike Huckabee has made his case to the American people and they have responded.

New GOP Numbers Out of Florida

Here’s the very latest RCP results from Florida:

Florida Republican Primary
Tuesday, January 29 | Delegates at Stake: 57 (Winner Take All)
Poll	Date	Sample	McCain	Romney	Giuliani	Huckabee	Paul	Spread
RCP Average	01/20 to 01/24	–	25.3	25.0	18.5	15.5	4.2	McCain +0.3
SurveyUSA	01/23 – 01/24	550 LV	30	28	18	14	6	McCain +2.0
InsiderAdvantage	01/23 – 01/23	501 LV	23	22	18	16	4	McCain +1.0
Rasmussen	01/23 – 01/23	675 LV	23	27	20	15	4	Romney +4.0
Mason-Dixon	01/22 – 01/23	400 LV	26	30	18	15	3	Romney +4.0
Strategic Vision (R)	01/20 – 01/22	606 LV	25	20	22	18	5	McCain +3.0
Herald/SPT/Bay9	01/20 – 01/22	800 LV	25	23	15	15	3	McCain +2.0
See More Florida Republican Primary Polls | Chart

Latest Florida GOP Poll Results

Here are the very latest poll results from Florida.  This chart courtesy of Real Clear Politics.

Florida Republican Primary
Tuesday, January 29 | Delegates at Stake: 57 (Winner Take All)
Poll	Date	McCain	Romney	Giuliani	Huckabee	Paul	Thompson	Spread
RCP Average	01/20 to 01/22	22.6	22.2	19.0	14.4	5.4	7.3	McCain +0.4
Strategic Vision (R)	01/20 – 01/22	25	20	22	18	5	6	McCain +3.0
Herald/SPT/Bay9	01/20 – 01/22	25	23	15	15	3	4	McCain +2.0
InsiderAdvantage	01/20 – 01/21	18	24	19	12	7	—	Romney +5.0
Rasmussen	01/20 – 01/20	20	25	19	13	5	12	Romney +5.0
SurveyUSA	01/20 – 01/20	25	19	20	14	7	7	McCain +5.0
See More Florida Republican Primary Polls | Chart

Subsequent polls should continue to tighten.  Tonight’s MSNBC sponsored GOP debate will prove interesting because of the bad blood that exists between Romney and McCain.  I expect fireworks as Romney continues to pound away at his “Washington is Broken” message and ties McCain to the brokenness.  Huckabee will be looking to speak to the Super Tuesday voters tonight as well as in the CNN sponsored California debate coming up next week.  Right now, I’m pretty comfortable with the tentative predictions I made in an earlier post this week about how Florida will play out.  I’ll finalize those predictions this weekend once the debate has happened and a few more days of polling data come in.  One thing to keep in mind is that Florida is an early voting state and a number of voters have already cast ballots.  Rudy has camped out in Florida and is competing for the same pool of moderate GOP voters as McCain.  Is it possible that Rudy siphoned enough of those voters off during the early voting period as to make the polls showing McCain leading a bit inaccurate?  We’ll see.

BTW, thanks to everyone who responded and commented on my previous posting.  We’re all hoping for a Huckabee victory in Florida and on Super Tuesday, but we also are faced with making serious decisions if that does not occur.  Who among the GOP candidates could you support if Huckabee fails to win the nomination?  Leave a comment or email me with your answer and why to: christfollowerblog [at] gmail [dot] com

Michelle Malkin calls out John McCain

Okay, so I’ve been a bit upset in the last several weeks by Michelle’s inaccurate (in my opinion) representations of Gov. Huckabee’s positions and record.  However, here’s a piece that really has me thinking about what she’s saying about McCain.  She’s right about his positions and stances.  Has he changed or does he continue to treasure the thought of giving amnesty to the millions of illegals here who have flaunted our laws?

Malkin’s entire post is worth reading but I’ll excerpt a few salient quotes here:

After spearheading a disastrous, security-undermining illegal alien amnesty bill last year with Teddy Kennedy, “straight-talking” GOP Sen. John McCain claims he has seen the light. In TV appearances, he vows to put immigration enforcement first. On the campaign trail, he offers a perfunctory promise to strengthen border security and emphasizes the need to restore Americans’ trust in their government’s ability to defend the homeland.

“I got the message,” he told voters in South Carolina. “We will secure the borders first.”

But how can McCain cure citizens’ distrust when his own credibility on the issue remains fatally damaged? He doesn’t believe his own election-year spin. And he knows we know it. This is cynicism on steroids with a speedball chaser.

Not all of us have forgotten how the short-fused Arizona senator cursed good-faith opponents in his own party

His admission of the shamnesty failure is grudging and bitter. While he now tells conservative voters what they want to hear about the need to build the southern border fence, he takes a contemptuous tone toward physical barriers when talking to businessmen. “By the way, I think the fence is least effective,” he told executives in Milwaukee, according to a recent Vanity Fair profile. “But I’ll build the g.d. fence if they want it.” Straight talk? Try hate talk.

For all his supposed, newfound enlightenment about what most Americans want—protection against invasion, commitment to the rule of law, meaningful employer sanctions, an end to sanctuary cities, enforcement-by-attrition plus deportation reform, and an end to special illegal alien benefits that invite more law-breaking–The Maverick remains a Geraldo Rivera Republican. Like the ethnocentric cable TV host who can’t string a sentence about immigration together without drowning in emotional demagoguery, McCain naturally resorts to open-borders platitudes when pressed for enforcement specifics.

I’ll admit that I’m really struggling to come to terms with whom I could support if Gov. Huckabee is not the GOP nominee.  Sen. McCain is extremely strong on national security and that issue is, of course, of great concern in the times in which we live.  Gov. Romney has a trackrecord of successful financial dealings and economic turnarounds.  The economy is becoming a larger issue every day and I fear that other candidates may not have the expertise and acumen to orchestrate a turnaround of the economy in the same way that Gov. Romney may be able to accomplish.  I lost a great deal of respect for McCain during the immigration debate.  I lost a great deal of respect for Romney when he resorted to dirty campaigning against Huckabee in Iowa when he saw his precious “slingshot” momentum strategy endangered by the upstart former preacher.

I am, I admit, perplexed.  The GOP establishment has fought long and hard against the Huckabee candidacy.  With the loss in SC, it is entirely possible that they have succeeded in derailing Huckabee this election cycle.  I hope not, but it is likely that Huckabee will continue to face financial difficulties that will greatly impede his ability to get out his message.  I could not, would not, support Rudy in any circumstance.  If I remain in the GOP camp this election, which of the two remaining candidates (Romney or McCain) could I support and not feel resentment for having to do so?  At this point, I have no answer.

The GOP Race in Florida

Here are the latest polls coming out of Florida, courtesy of Realclearpolitics:

Florida Republican Primary
Tuesday, January 29 | Delegates at Stake: 57 (Winner Take All)
Poll	Date	McCain	Giuliani	Romney	Huckabee	Thompson	Paul	Spread
RCP Average	01/09 to 01/20	23.3	20.0	19.3	16.0	8.3	5.5	McCain +3.3
Rasmussen	01/20 – 01/20	20	19	25	13	12	5	Romney +5.0
SurveyUSA	01/20 – 01/20	25	20	19	14	7	7	McCain +5.0
InsiderAdvantage	01/15 – 01/16	20	21	20	13	7	6	Giuliani +1.0
Research 2000	01/14 – 01/16	26	22	16	17	7	5	McCain +4.0
Strategic Vision (R)	01/11 – 01/13	27	18	17	20	10	5	McCain +7.0
Quinnipiac	01/09 – 01/13	22	20	19	19	7	5	McCain +2.0
See More Florida Republican Primary Polls | Chart

The numbers are all over the place but, on average, McCain holds a 3-4 point lead over Rudy and Mitt. Florida is definitely in play and will decide whether McCain can keep the momentum and gain fundraising traction for the Super Tuesday and later primaries. For Rudy, Florida is do or die. A loss in the state that he has staked his hopes on and skipped all earlier primaries for, would be the death knell of his candidacy. Huckabee is talking about not playing actively in Florida and instead focusing on Super Tuesday states that have GOP electorates which most closely resemble his winning coalition in Iowa. For Romney, Florida is his best chance to reestablish himself as a viable candidate and to beat McCain in a diverse state in which the primary is for registered GOP voters only…no independents or Democrats, unlike the composition of McCain’s winning coalitions in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Personally, as a Huckabee supporter, I hope Mitt wins Florida so that the GOP field continues to have no frontrunner, thus improving Huckabee’s chances if he can pick up some significant Super Tuesday wins in states with large evangelical populations.

There is also another reason why I hope Mitt wins Florida, notably, the economic concerns that are beginning to take center stage in this election do not favor McCain. On national security, McCain is golden. However, his economic positions are not always in line with traditional conservative philosophy. Mitt has an economic message that reflects his long and successful career in the private sector, plus his impressive turnaround of the economic condition of Massachusetts when he became governor there. With that said, Huckabee’s turnaround of the Arkansas economy is much more impressive and his active embracing of the FairTax plan, a plan which would instantly propel America to the forefront of the world economy again, are reasons why people outside of the evangelical Christian circle should also be seriously considering supporting Gov. Huckabee.

Because we are still a week away from the Florida primary, I am going to delay making a concrete prediction until this weekend. However, I think the economic news this week will shift support to Romney and that Rudy and McCain will be fighting for the support of national security conservatives and those most concerned about the global war on terror. If Huckabee decides not to play hard in Florida, then Romney may well be able to cobble together a winning coalition. At this point (subject to change by the time of my official weekend predictions) I am leaning toward predicting a Romney win by 2% over McCain with Rudy finishing third about 6% behind Romney.

Finally, here are some thoughts from Gov. Huckabee about the state of the campaign after South Carolina:

Post Mortem on SC GOP Primary

Well, Sen. McCain did what he needed to do in South Carolina. The Senator carried the state that doomed his 2000 Presidential hopes. The win was impressive but not unforeseen. Gov. Huckabee needed to win SC. His loss in this Southern primary is a significant defeat because he needed to prove he could win in territory that should have been very hospitable to his message. Unfortunately, the constant negative attacks by the conservative punditry finally made an impact. Isn’t it ironic that folks like Rush Limbaugh and Michelle Malkin, not to mention the National Review and others, may be responsible for handing the nomination to McCain, a candidate whom they despise perhaps as much or more than Huckabee, simply because they derailed the Huckabee momentum by distorting and lying about his record. Even Joe Carter at Evangelical Outpost has taken a decisively pessimistic outlook about Gov. Huckabee’s chances now that he’s lost SC. Here’s what Joe blogged after McCain’s win in SC yesterday:

The Moderate Maverick’s Momentum:
Reflections on the SC Primary

Kudos to McCain — He’s a moderate Senator, a terrible campaigner, and tends to be his own worst enemy. Yet John McCain managed to pull off a win in a close race against a conservative governor and the best campaigner in the race. I’m impressed. McCain knocked out the two most conservative candidates—Thompson and Huckabee—which should make it easy to best the two remaining moderates—Romney and Giuliani. The race is now McCain’s to lose. If he doesn’t get in his own way, he should have a clear path to the nomination.

The Fat Lady Clears Her Throat — Governor Huckabee needed to win South Carolina. He didn’t. I don’t want to say its over because miracles are still possible (a win in Florida would put him back in contention) but it isn’t likely he’ll be the Republican nominee.

Prediction — In a few weeks, when the conservative punditry realizes that a man they truly despise (McCain) will be the eventual nominee, they’ll suddenly “discover” that Huckabee’s record and positions were more conservative than they had led people to believe. The admission will lead to a backlash among conservatives who trusted that the pundits were telling the truth about Huckabee rather than unfairly maligning him because they were ashamed to have a barefoot hillbilly preacher as the head of their party.

The Other Side — Because they are both first-term Senators, both Clinton and Obama would normally need to add someone with experience (either a governor or a general) to their ticket. But the GOP is so weak this year that they don’t need to play it safe. Indeed, the smartest move would be for them to set aside their differences and join forces. A Clinton-Obama/Obama-Clinton ticket would be unbeatable in the general election. While McCain would do slightly better than Romney, both would be crushed by the Democratic landslide.

Just Say No — If McCain is smart he’ll offer the VP slot to Huckabee. If Huckabee is smart he’ll turn it down. The failure of John Edwards campaign is a reminder that the country doesn’t like general election losers. Rather than being on the losing ticket in ’08, Huckabee should sit out the race and wait until 2012.

Can’t Buy Him Love — Republicans are far too impressed by wealth and business acumen (neither of which are relevant qualities for being a successful POTUS) so it isn’t surprising that Romney appeals to the GOP establishment. Still, it has become obvious that Romney would no longer be in the race if he were not a very, very, very wealthy man. He spent over $100 million in Iowa and New Hampshire for two second place finishes and another $4 million in SC only to come in a distant fourth place. He also spent who knows how much to win uncontested races in Wyoming and Nevada. That is simply astounding. The GOP could add “Generic Super-Rich Guy” on the ballot and pull in 15% of the primary vote in every state, yet Romney hasn’t done much better than that. How much more money will Romney spend before he realizes that it’s over?

Foreshadowing — Anyone wondering what went wrong in the Huckabee campaign should read this article in Thursday’s edition of the Wall Street Journal. It says more than I can say.

Bumrushed — Rush Limbaugh spent the past week disparaging both McCain and Huckabee. Yet both men took the top two slots in one of the most conservative states in the union. What does that say about Rush’s influence?

Goodbye, Fred — Jeff Emanuel has an excellent post-mortem on Thompson. The only thing that I’d add is that I’ve lost a great deal of respect for the Senator. I was a FredHead from the beginning but he turned out not to be the man I thought he was.

Other Analysis — John Mark Reynolds provides a more succinct and astute analysis that I can provide. I think he is spot on (at least up to point #5).

Tomorrow, I’ll provide my analysis of Florida and what is likely to happen there. It is likely that Florida will be the deciding factor in whether anyone other than McCain will be able to win the nomination.

All GOP Eyes on South Carolina

What the pundits have called a “muddled” GOP race for the presidential nomination now moves to South Carolina.  Tomorrow should be an interesting day as the weather threatens to be a bit on the nasty side and the state-wide polls show a great deal of vacillation among likely GOP voters.   Rasmussen is reporting a dead heat between Mike Huckabee and John McCain, both at 24% of the vote.

Here’s the Realclearpolitics breakdown of the polls leading into tomorrow’s primary:

South Carolina Republican Primary
Saturday, January 19 | Delegates at Stake: 24*
Poll	Date	McCain	Huckabee	Romney	Thompson	Paul	Giuliani	Spread
RCP Average	01/14 to 01/17	28.2	23.3	16.7	13.8	4.2	3.3	McCain +4.9
FOX News	01/16 – 01/17	27	20	15	11	4	3	McCain +7.0
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby	01/15 – 01/17	29	22	15	13	4	2	McCain +7.0
Rasmussen	01/16 – 01/16	24	24	18	16	5	3	Tie
SurveyUSA	01/16 – 01/16	29	26	17	17	5	3	McCain +3.0
American Res. Group	01/15 – 01/16	33	23	20	13	1	4	McCain +10.0
Mason-Dixon	01/14 – 01/16	27	25	15	13	6	5	McCain +2.0
See More South Carolina Republican Primary Polls | Chart

The race will probably be quite tight, though Romney’s win in Michigan will hopefully curtail the gains made by McCain in SC and give Huckabee the edge when the votes are actually cast.

Huckabee continues to take an unfair beating at the hands of pundits such as Michelle Malkin (click here for her latest anti-Huckabee diatribe) and Rush Limbaugh.  Limbaugh recently made a statement to the effect that the GOP will be destroyed if either Huckabee or McCain get the nomination.  Talk about histrionics from El Rushbo!  All of this has led Joe Carter at the Evangelical Outpost to opine the following:

Huckabee’s Problem (Part I) — Romney’s win in MI helps clear a path for Huckabee to win SC. But I’m not so sure it matters anymore.

A large section of the GOP has made it quite clear that they will do whatever it takes to ensure that the hillbilly preacher doesn’t win the nomination. Many of them–and we all know who they are–will lie about his record and his positions in order to put an end to his campaign. They know that while they may lose the trust of a few people, most will let them get away with the deceit since “that’s politics.”

To those people who told me that I was naïve, let me say: You were more right than you know. I never, ever would have believed that “our people” would do this sort of thing. I thought the primary would be a fair fight in which to decide who would be the best candidate. Now I know better.

Huckabee’s Problem (Part II) — Huckabee can’t overcome the forces lined up against him. Still, he doesn’t need to make their hateful task any easier. He won Iowa and then showed that he hadn’t prepared for the scenario the campaign might continue after January 5th. He squandered his momentum by not releasing a major policy proposal since before the caucus. He’s failed to add new staff or to expand his organization. And while he has the ability to appeal to a broad range of voters he continues to act as if he is only interested in the religious crowd.

Worst of all, he’s allowed his enemies to distort his record and his positions. Huckabee has remained silent while Rush Limbaugh, Hugh Hewitt, and Mark Levin go on the radio every day and call him a “liberal.” Even their loyal listeners are tired of such nonsense, which is why he should call them all out publicly, challenging them to “put up or shut up.” By revealing that they don’t know what they’re talking about–they’re just repeating the talking points put out by the Romney campaign–Huckabee would shore up the conservative base that he’s been losing.

The time is now, Governor. Start fighting back before it’s too late.

Is That A Dark Cloud Forming? — I know its early in the race and I don’t want to be pessimistic but I have to ask: Doesn’t it look like we’re going to have a Democrat in the White House next year?

I agree with Joe that Gov. Huckabee must fight back vociferously against the unfair attacks and untruths that have been aimed at him and his record.  The constant negative drumbeat by the supposed conservative intelligentsia is causing problems on the trail.  South Carolina is vitally important for Huckabee to win.  Absent a win there, the trail to Super Tuesday becomes even more ominous.

Rush Is Wrong…Again!

When will Rush start actually researching his information before he spews uninformed opinions as if they were fact? El Rushbo has shown a disregard for trying to ascertain the truth about Mike Huckabee’s campaign positions and his record as governor. Rush parrots the discredited lines put out by partisan hacks who specialize in disinformation dissemination. Over at the Evangelical Outpost, Joe Carter finally has had enough of Rush’s ignorant diatribes against Mike Huckabee (and the Huckabee supporters). Here’s what Joe has written:

While I am cognizant of the unwritten rule that conservatives should never criticize Rush Limbaugh, his recent distortions of Governor Huckabee’s record require a response. I don’t think the errors made by Rush are intentional, but they are without excuse. Rush has more money that the Huckabee campaign so he can afford to hire a fact-checker.

For instance, HotAir recently posted this clip as their “Quote of the Day”:

In the clip Rush claims that, “[Huckabee] does oppose school choice.” This is patently false.

Under the “Education” section of Governor Huckabee’s website he clearly states, “I am a strong supporter of public school choice.” Governor Huckabee is a supporter of school vouchers, and has always been a supporter of school vouchers; he supported them as far back as his first run for public office, as a U.S. Senate candidate, in 1992.

Naturally, Rush is free to criticize the positions of Governor Huckabee. But he owes it to his listeners and the conservative movement to get his facts right.

(By the way, I find Rush’s disdain for the word “populism” (representation or extolling of the common person, the working class, the underdog) rather bizarre. As a friend of Rod Dreher asked, “When did Rush Limbaugh stop being in favor of Reagan Democrats?”

I realize that he thinks a “populist” is “somebody who wants to grow government to take problem-solving and sadness and all these things, out of your daily life and replace them with whatever government can do so you will become dependent.” But that is not what the word means. And even Rush doesn’t have power to redefine terms as he sees fit. )

Rush Can’t Keep Quiet

Last night Rush Limbaugh phoned into Fox News to make sure he was able to get his spin out on the TV airwaves.  The caucus results in Iowa were momentous, particularly if you’re a Huckabee supporter.  I’ve blogged at length about Rush’s fixation on being one of the anti-Huckabee pundits despite the evidence that proves Rush wrong.  Well, Michelle Malkin live blogged Rush’s call in:

Rush Limbaugh calls in to Fox News.

Huckabee won’t have the same base in New Hampshire. He’s not going to be critical of McCain. I think the Republican race is long, long to be decided.

Who’s his candidate? Haven’t picked one. I’m a rock-ribbed Republican conservative…Huckabee doesn’t have Reagan credentials.

Wrong, Rush, wrong!  Compare Huckabee’s gubernatorial experience with that of Reagan and one finds striking parallels.  Plus, one can find even stronger Reagan tendencies in the fact that Huckabee has been a life-long supporter of the concepts of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.  It is terribly dishonest for Limbaugh to try to distinguish Huckabee from conservatism.  Mike Huckabee is, despite Limbaugh’s handwringing, a genuine conservative.  If one examines the Huckabee campaign planks, one can’t help but realize that he is the real deal in this race.

Question: What if Huckabee calls to try and make up with you?

RL: It’s not going to happen…wouldn’t expect him to try and make peace.

Uhh, Rush, Gov. Huckabee attempted to contact you by email and you decided to not respond to his email.  You, Rush, are the one who needs to contact Gov. Huckabee and make amends for the blatant distortions of his record that you have parroted from the talking heads who failed to do even a modicum of research before trotting out their anti-Huckabee rhetoric.  Time to face reality, Rush, this election cycle the GOP electorate are not taking their talking points from you.  The more you rail against Gov. Huckabee and his supporters, the more you prove you’re increasingly becoming irrelevant as a conservative voice.

National Review’s Byron York on Huckabee Victory

The folks at National Review have not been impartial towards Gov. Huckabee.  In fact, the magazine devoted an entire cover page and issue to its endorsement of Mitt Romney for President.  However, ‘props’ must be given to the magazine for today’s coverage of the incredible showing by Mike Huckabee in winning the Iowa caucus.  Of particular note is Byron York’s piece (click here to read it).  Here are some interesting insights from Byron about his experience on the ground in Iowa in the closing days of the campaign there:

The campaign’s strategy was shaped by two things, Saltsman said. First was Huckabee’s talent as a communicator, and second was the fact that the campaign was always nearly broke. Put those two together, and you had a campaign constantly searching for free media exposure. “We’ve been criticized sometimes for — after a big event, we went straight to Washington to do media, or we went straight to New York to do media,” Saltsman said. “That was because a lot of those shows wouldn’t have us on unless we did that.”

“We didn’t have any money,” Wickers added.

“Exactly,” Saltsman said. “But we knew that was a big part of the process for us.”

So Huckabee went from show to show, and he came up with other attention-getting moves like devoting his first commercial to the now-famous “Chuck Norris” ad. “Any other campaign, that ad never gets shown,” Saltsman told me, “because you have a conference room full of consultants saying you can’t do it.” At the moment Saltsman was saying that in Des Moines, Huckabee himself was in California, sitting down to talk on The Tonight Show — perhaps the ultimate in free media. A number of commentators thought that was a blunder; Saltsman checked the number of Iowa homes tuned into the show on any given evening and thought it was a pretty good idea.

That disconnect between the conventional wisdom and Huckabee’s strategy worked time and again in the campaign’s favor.

Perhaps Gov. Huckabee’s campaign has tapped into the mood of the American people and is resonating because he brings a message of hope, change, honesty and integrity that this country has desired in a candidate for quite some time.  Mike Huckabee is proving that people can be excited about supporting a candidate rather than resigning themselves to the choice of “the lesser of two evils.”

Before the event — one in which Romney’s appearance was jarringly preceded by a music system playing Garth Brooks drinking songs — Eric Fehrnstrom, a spokesman who had traveled with Romney all around Iowa, explained his view of the Huckabee campaign. “We’re going up against a loose confederation of fair taxers, and homeschoolers, and Bible study members, and so this will be a test to see who can generate the most bodies on caucus day,” Fehrnstrom said.

Romney spokesman Fehrnstrom notes that Huckabee’s supporters were a loose confederation of Fair Tax supporters, homeschool parents, and Bible study members.  While these classifications certainly reflect some of Gov. Huckabee’s base, it does not capture the numbers of Reagan Democrats who hold to a right-of-center populist economic philosophy, one which distinguishes Huckabee from the country club Republicans against whom he is running.  It will be these voters who will either keep the GOP in the White House or turn them out and let a Democrat take the executive branch.  If the GOP hopes to keep the White House, it will have to look long and hard at how Gov. Huckabee’s populist message is resonating across the country.  If the party elites continue to try to tear Huckabee and his supporters down, I believe it spells doom for the future of the GOP (at least in the short term).

In conclusion, Iowa is but one of a series of decisive contests which Huckabee must win to capture the GOP nomination.  The seismic victory which he achieved may well light a fire under the GOP base that, if inspired, can take a candidate from even a small town like Hope, Arkansas, and propel him to the White House.