Florida Primary Day Poll Results

Here are the latest numbers from Real Clear Politics:

Florida Republican Primary
Tuesday, January 29 | Delegates at Stake: 57 (Winner Take All)
Poll	Date	Sample	McCain	Romney	Giuliani	Huckabee	Paul	Spread
RCP Average	01/22 to 01/28	-	30.7	30.1	14.9	12.7	3.6	McCain +0.6
InsiderAdvantage	01/28 - 01/28	813 LV	31	30	15	13	2	McCain +1.0
SurveyUSA	01/27 - 01/28	979 LV	32	31	15	13	6	McCain +1.0
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby	01/27 - 01/28	941 LV	35	31	13	13	2	McCain +4.0
Mitchell Research	01/27 - 01/28	964 LV	32	34	13	10	3	Romney +2.0
Rasmussen	01/27 - 01/27	578 LV	31	31	16	11	4	Tie
Suffolk	01/25 - 01/27	400 LV	30	27	13	11	4	McCain +3.0
Strategic Vision (R)	01/25 - 01/27	600 LV	27	26	17	15	5	McCain +1.0
Quinnipiac	01/24 - 01/27	585 LV	32	31	14	13	3	McCain +1.0
Mason-Dixon	01/22 - 01/23	400 LV	26	30	18	15	3	Romney +4.0
See More Florida Republican Primary Polls | Chart

I promised official predictions over the weekend, but the fluidity of the race caused me to hold back a little longer than I had anticipated.  After analyzing the latest polls, the early voting patterns and the perceived impact of the endorsement of John McCain by Mel Martinez and Gov. Crist, I am changing my earlier predictions of a Romney win by 2% over McCain.

Romney played strong in Florida and his economic message certainly has made the race closer than earlier anticipated by some.  However, I don’t think the economic climate moved substantially last week, thus I don’t think Mitt will be able to realize the gains that I earlier had predicted he might.  Because the economic news didn’t quite play out the way I thought last week and the early voting and the Florida GOP establishment coming out for McCain in the last couple of days, I now predict a McCain victory by 3% over Romney with Giuliani coming in a distant third (about 8% behind McCain).   The race could be tighter, perhaps only a one or two percent difference between McCain and Romney, but I just don’t think that Romney will be able to overcome the early voting and the Florida GOP establishment advantage that McCain has gained.  I hope I’m wrong about this prediction and that my earlier prediction of a Romney win by 2% comes to fruition.  We’ll see.

On to Super Tuesday!!