Here are the latest polls coming out of Florida, courtesy of Realclearpolitics:
| Florida Republican Primary | ||||||||
Tuesday, January 29 | Delegates at Stake: 57 (Winner Take All)
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| Poll | Date | McCain | Giuliani | Romney | Huckabee | Thompson | Paul | Spread |
| RCP Average | 01/09 to 01/20 | 23.3 | 20.0 | 19.3 | 16.0 | 8.3 | 5.5 | McCain +3.3 |
| Rasmussen | 01/20 – 01/20 | 20 | 19 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 5 | Romney +5.0 |
| SurveyUSA | 01/20 – 01/20 | 25 | 20 | 19 | 14 | 7 | 7 | McCain +5.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 01/15 – 01/16 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 13 | 7 | 6 | Giuliani +1.0 |
| Research 2000 | 01/14 – 01/16 | 26 | 22 | 16 | 17 | 7 | 5 | McCain +4.0 |
| Strategic Vision (R) | 01/11 – 01/13 | 27 | 18 | 17 | 20 | 10 | 5 | McCain +7.0 |
| Quinnipiac | 01/09 – 01/13 | 22 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 7 | 5 | McCain +2.0 |
| See More Florida Republican Primary Polls | Chart | ||||||||
The numbers are all over the place but, on average, McCain holds a 3-4 point lead over Rudy and Mitt. Florida is definitely in play and will decide whether McCain can keep the momentum and gain fundraising traction for the Super Tuesday and later primaries. For Rudy, Florida is do or die. A loss in the state that he has staked his hopes on and skipped all earlier primaries for, would be the death knell of his candidacy. Huckabee is talking about not playing actively in Florida and instead focusing on Super Tuesday states that have GOP electorates which most closely resemble his winning coalition in Iowa. For Romney, Florida is his best chance to reestablish himself as a viable candidate and to beat McCain in a diverse state in which the primary is for registered GOP voters only…no independents or Democrats, unlike the composition of McCain’s winning coalitions in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Personally, as a Huckabee supporter, I hope Mitt wins Florida so that the GOP field continues to have no frontrunner, thus improving Huckabee’s chances if he can pick up some significant Super Tuesday wins in states with large evangelical populations.
There is also another reason why I hope Mitt wins Florida, notably, the economic concerns that are beginning to take center stage in this election do not favor McCain. On national security, McCain is golden. However, his economic positions are not always in line with traditional conservative philosophy. Mitt has an economic message that reflects his long and successful career in the private sector, plus his impressive turnaround of the economic condition of Massachusetts when he became governor there. With that said, Huckabee’s turnaround of the Arkansas economy is much more impressive and his active embracing of the FairTax plan, a plan which would instantly propel America to the forefront of the world economy again, are reasons why people outside of the evangelical Christian circle should also be seriously considering supporting Gov. Huckabee.
Because we are still a week away from the Florida primary, I am going to delay making a concrete prediction until this weekend. However, I think the economic news this week will shift support to Romney and that Rudy and McCain will be fighting for the support of national security conservatives and those most concerned about the global war on terror. If Huckabee decides not to play hard in Florida, then Romney may well be able to cobble together a winning coalition. At this point (subject to change by the time of my official weekend predictions) I am leaning toward predicting a Romney win by 2% over McCain with Rudy finishing third about 6% behind Romney.
Finally, here are some thoughts from Gov. Huckabee about the state of the campaign after South Carolina:
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Ewww…. It may be necessary, but I really don’t like the idea of pulling out of Florida.
I agree. I wish Huckabee could compete in Florida and potentially take the state. However, I guess since Florida is a “winner take all” state in terms of how its delegates are won, that his campaign may be concerned about sinking a great deal of resources into a state in which even losing by one vote means that he collects no delegates. Perhaps he’s counting on Mitt or Rudy derailing the McCain momentum enough in Florida to give him a shot in winning some of the Super Tuesday states in which there are greater populations of evangelical Christians and others who are more amenable to the Huckabee message.