Post Mortem on SC GOP Primary

Well, Sen. McCain did what he needed to do in South Carolina. The Senator carried the state that doomed his 2000 Presidential hopes. The win was impressive but not unforeseen. Gov. Huckabee needed to win SC. His loss in this Southern primary is a significant defeat because he needed to prove he could win in territory that should have been very hospitable to his message. Unfortunately, the constant negative attacks by the conservative punditry finally made an impact. Isn’t it ironic that folks like Rush Limbaugh and Michelle Malkin, not to mention the National Review and others, may be responsible for handing the nomination to McCain, a candidate whom they despise perhaps as much or more than Huckabee, simply because they derailed the Huckabee momentum by distorting and lying about his record. Even Joe Carter at Evangelical Outpost has taken a decisively pessimistic outlook about Gov. Huckabee’s chances now that he’s lost SC. Here’s what Joe blogged after McCain’s win in SC yesterday:

The Moderate Maverick’s Momentum:
Reflections on the SC Primary

Kudos to McCain — He’s a moderate Senator, a terrible campaigner, and tends to be his own worst enemy. Yet John McCain managed to pull off a win in a close race against a conservative governor and the best campaigner in the race. I’m impressed. McCain knocked out the two most conservative candidates—Thompson and Huckabee—which should make it easy to best the two remaining moderates—Romney and Giuliani. The race is now McCain’s to lose. If he doesn’t get in his own way, he should have a clear path to the nomination.

The Fat Lady Clears Her Throat — Governor Huckabee needed to win South Carolina. He didn’t. I don’t want to say its over because miracles are still possible (a win in Florida would put him back in contention) but it isn’t likely he’ll be the Republican nominee.

Prediction — In a few weeks, when the conservative punditry realizes that a man they truly despise (McCain) will be the eventual nominee, they’ll suddenly “discover” that Huckabee’s record and positions were more conservative than they had led people to believe. The admission will lead to a backlash among conservatives who trusted that the pundits were telling the truth about Huckabee rather than unfairly maligning him because they were ashamed to have a barefoot hillbilly preacher as the head of their party.

The Other Side — Because they are both first-term Senators, both Clinton and Obama would normally need to add someone with experience (either a governor or a general) to their ticket. But the GOP is so weak this year that they don’t need to play it safe. Indeed, the smartest move would be for them to set aside their differences and join forces. A Clinton-Obama/Obama-Clinton ticket would be unbeatable in the general election. While McCain would do slightly better than Romney, both would be crushed by the Democratic landslide.

Just Say No — If McCain is smart he’ll offer the VP slot to Huckabee. If Huckabee is smart he’ll turn it down. The failure of John Edwards campaign is a reminder that the country doesn’t like general election losers. Rather than being on the losing ticket in ‘08, Huckabee should sit out the race and wait until 2012.

Can’t Buy Him Love — Republicans are far too impressed by wealth and business acumen (neither of which are relevant qualities for being a successful POTUS) so it isn’t surprising that Romney appeals to the GOP establishment. Still, it has become obvious that Romney would no longer be in the race if he were not a very, very, very wealthy man. He spent over $100 million in Iowa and New Hampshire for two second place finishes and another $4 million in SC only to come in a distant fourth place. He also spent who knows how much to win uncontested races in Wyoming and Nevada. That is simply astounding. The GOP could add “Generic Super-Rich Guy” on the ballot and pull in 15% of the primary vote in every state, yet Romney hasn’t done much better than that. How much more money will Romney spend before he realizes that it’s over?

Foreshadowing — Anyone wondering what went wrong in the Huckabee campaign should read this article in Thursday’s edition of the Wall Street Journal. It says more than I can say.

Bumrushed — Rush Limbaugh spent the past week disparaging both McCain and Huckabee. Yet both men took the top two slots in one of the most conservative states in the union. What does that say about Rush’s influence?

Goodbye, Fred — Jeff Emanuel has an excellent post-mortem on Thompson. The only thing that I’d add is that I’ve lost a great deal of respect for the Senator. I was a FredHead from the beginning but he turned out not to be the man I thought he was.

Other Analysis — John Mark Reynolds provides a more succinct and astute analysis that I can provide. I think he is spot on (at least up to point #5).

Tomorrow, I’ll provide my analysis of Florida and what is likely to happen there. It is likely that Florida will be the deciding factor in whether anyone other than McCain will be able to win the nomination.