What the pundits have called a “muddled” GOP race for the presidential nomination now moves to South Carolina. Tomorrow should be an interesting day as the weather threatens to be a bit on the nasty side and the state-wide polls show a great deal of vacillation among likely GOP voters. Rasmussen is reporting a dead heat between Mike Huckabee and John McCain, both at 24% of the vote.
Here’s the Realclearpolitics breakdown of the polls leading into tomorrow’s primary:
| South Carolina Republican Primary | ||||||||
Saturday, January 19 | Delegates at Stake: 24* |
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| Poll | Date | McCain | Huckabee | Romney | Thompson | Paul | Giuliani | Spread |
| RCP Average | 01/14 to 01/17 | 28.2 | 23.3 | 16.7 | 13.8 | 4.2 | 3.3 | McCain +4.9 |
| FOX News | 01/16 – 01/17 | 27 | 20 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 3 | McCain +7.0 |
| Reuters/CSpan/Zogby | 01/15 – 01/17 | 29 | 22 | 15 | 13 | 4 | 2 | McCain +7.0 |
| Rasmussen | 01/16 – 01/16 | 24 | 24 | 18 | 16 | 5 | 3 | Tie |
| SurveyUSA | 01/16 – 01/16 | 29 | 26 | 17 | 17 | 5 | 3 | McCain +3.0 |
| American Res. Group | 01/15 – 01/16 | 33 | 23 | 20 | 13 | 1 | 4 | McCain +10.0 |
| Mason-Dixon | 01/14 – 01/16 | 27 | 25 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 5 | McCain +2.0 |
| See More South Carolina Republican Primary Polls | Chart | ||||||||
The race will probably be quite tight, though Romney’s win in Michigan will hopefully curtail the gains made by McCain in SC and give Huckabee the edge when the votes are actually cast.
Huckabee continues to take an unfair beating at the hands of pundits such as Michelle Malkin (click here for her latest anti-Huckabee diatribe) and Rush Limbaugh. Limbaugh recently made a statement to the effect that the GOP will be destroyed if either Huckabee or McCain get the nomination. Talk about histrionics from El Rushbo! All of this has led Joe Carter at the Evangelical Outpost to opine the following:
Huckabee’s Problem (Part I) — Romney’s win in MI helps clear a path for Huckabee to win SC. But I’m not so sure it matters anymore.
A large section of the GOP has made it quite clear that they will do whatever it takes to ensure that the hillbilly preacher doesn’t win the nomination. Many of them–and we all know who they are–will lie about his record and his positions in order to put an end to his campaign. They know that while they may lose the trust of a few people, most will let them get away with the deceit since “that’s politics.”
To those people who told me that I was naïve, let me say: You were more right than you know. I never, ever would have believed that “our people” would do this sort of thing. I thought the primary would be a fair fight in which to decide who would be the best candidate. Now I know better.
Huckabee’s Problem (Part II) — Huckabee can’t overcome the forces lined up against him. Still, he doesn’t need to make their hateful task any easier. He won Iowa and then showed that he hadn’t prepared for the scenario the campaign might continue after January 5th. He squandered his momentum by not releasing a major policy proposal since before the caucus. He’s failed to add new staff or to expand his organization. And while he has the ability to appeal to a broad range of voters he continues to act as if he is only interested in the religious crowd.
Worst of all, he’s allowed his enemies to distort his record and his positions. Huckabee has remained silent while Rush Limbaugh, Hugh Hewitt, and Mark Levin go on the radio every day and call him a “liberal.” Even their loyal listeners are tired of such nonsense, which is why he should call them all out publicly, challenging them to “put up or shut up.” By revealing that they don’t know what they’re talking about–they’re just repeating the talking points put out by the Romney campaign–Huckabee would shore up the conservative base that he’s been losing.
The time is now, Governor. Start fighting back before it’s too late.
Is That A Dark Cloud Forming? — I know its early in the race and I don’t want to be pessimistic but I have to ask: Doesn’t it look like we’re going to have a Democrat in the White House next year?
I agree with Joe that Gov. Huckabee must fight back vociferously against the unfair attacks and untruths that have been aimed at him and his record. The constant negative drumbeat by the supposed conservative intelligentsia is causing problems on the trail. South Carolina is vitally important for Huckabee to win. Absent a win there, the trail to Super Tuesday becomes even more ominous.
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What bothers me is that it seems as though the “establishment” Republicans and conservatives are showing their true colors. It seems that they don’t like this trend of Christian conservatives thinking for themselves, and it seems that some of the establishmentarians see social conservatism as a token, almost ceremonial, position for a Republican to take.
“You’re for abortion, but would appoint strict constructionist judges, Rudy? Okay, close enough for us. You’re for rape and incest exceptions and used to be a life-long pro-abortionist, Mitt? That’s okay, if you say you’re pro-life, that’s good enough. You’re pro-life but are against a constitutional amendment, Fred? Ah, what’s the difference, as long as you’re against Roe v. Wade? Ditto to you, John McCain.”
I could do the same (or a similar) rundown with their records/positions on marriage and the Second Amendment. Not to mention the fact that true, genuine faith in God, Jesus, and the Bible is obviously considered expendable.
Why is everything about Huckabee’s record, especially fiscally, so worthy of investigation-by-microscope, when other candidates’ social records are shrugged off?
Furthermore, have you heard Rudy Giulani’s current plan for illegals (national I.D. cards)? Why isn’t Michelle Malking focusing on him (besides the fact that he’s hiding from the limelight until January 29th)? He definitely has a sketchy record on immigration, too.
Okay, I’m sorry for ranting on your blog. I guess I needed to vent a little bit.
I appreciate the criticism of Huckabee, because that’s what the primary process is all about: vetting and strengthening the candidates. But this disproportionate vehemence against Huckabee is suspicious.
KingdomAdvancer:
I agree wholeheartedly. The microscopic investigations seem to be limited to only Gov. Huckabee and not to the other candidates who have a multitude of problems of their own (as you’ve pointed out). The South Carolina results are going to be a key determinant as to whether Huckabee’s campaign can overcome the intensely negative attacks that have been aimed at him by the establishmentarians who seem to discount us social conservatives. I fear that a loss in SC will be indicative that the constant attacks have done what the establishment have desired.
P.S. You’re always welcome to vent here!
Thanks.
I’m hoping that South Carolina will prove that the apparent disdain for those who prioritize social issues and faith only inspires them (us) more.
Not that economic issues aren’t important. But, without mentioning the fact that Huckabee isn’t as bad economically as everyone thinks he is, the Bible does say to put God before money.
And not that foreign policy experience isn’t important, either. But I do think it can be overrated (and I do think that’s exactly what McCain’s campaign is doing).
I have another point on immigration: Mike Huckabee is the only competitive candidate proposing the Fair Tax, yet no one is giving him credit for being the sole candidate with a tax plan that will actually discourage illegal immigration by removing the special advantages for illegals. Rudy Giulani’s heralded tax plan wouldn’t do that.
P.S. Where do you go to get the HTML code for the Real Clear Politics polls?