The Day After New Hampshire

The GOP race continues to baffle pundits who fail to connect with the base of the Party. Mitt Romney’s second place showing in NH behind John McCain caught many of the establishment conservatives by surprise. They couldn’t understand how a moneyed and charismatic candidate such as Mitt Romney could be turned down by the electorate in both Iowa and New Hampshire. The discrepancies between the pundits’ world and the real world are obvious to anyone outside the DC/NY corridor of power.

Now, on the day after John McCain’s sterling performance in the Granite State, where does the GOP race go? Of course, McCain will get a bounce from his victory and there are plausible scenarios in which he can secure the Party’s nomination. The Politico charts just such a path here. Typically, the bounce from a significant victory such as McCain’s in NH shows up on day 2 after the voting. However, I want to post some RealClearPolitics poll averages to show you the state of the race in the major primary states that are upcoming.

Nationally, Mike Huckabee is still in the lead with an RCP average of 21%. As great as the national news is for Gov. Huckabee, the state by state breakdowns are even better. The Michigan primary is January 15. Here’s the state of the race there right now:

Michigan Republican Primary
Tuesday, January 15 | Delegates at Stake: 61
Poll	Date	Romney	Huckabee	McCain	Giuliani	Thompson	Paul	Spread
RCP Average	11/30 to 12/19	19.8	18.8	13.0	12.5	6.5	4.3	Romney +1.0
Detroit News	12/16 – 12/19	21	19	10	12	4	4	Romney +2.0
MRG (R)	12/04 – 12/07	18	16	21	8	5	4	McCain +3.0
Rasmussen	12/04 – 12/04	20	21	8	19	9	7	Huckabee +1.0
Rossman Group (D)	11/30 – 12/03	20	19	13	11	8	2	Romney +1.0
See More Michigan Republican Primary Polls | Chart

Romney holds a 1% edge over Huckabee. Expect McCain to play well in Michigan, but don’t count out Huckabee’s appeal. A loss in Michigan by Romney signals the end of his campaign.

Here’s the state of the race in South Carolina:

South Carolina Republican Primary
Saturday, January 19 | Delegates at Stake: 47
Poll	Date	Huckabee	McCain	Romney	Thompson	Giuliani	Paul	Spread
RCP Average	01/04 to 01/07	32.3	19.7	16.0	9.0	9.0	4.7	Huckabee +12.6
InsiderAdvantage	01/07 – 01/07	33	21	14	5	8	5	Huckabee +12.0
Rasmussen	01/06 – 01/06	28	21	15	11	10	4	Huckabee +7.0
SurveyUSA	01/04 – 01/06	36	17	19	11	9	5	Huckabee +17.0
See More South Carolina Republican Primary Polls | Chart

Huckabee holds a huge lead over the other candidates. While McCain should pick up some support in the Palmetto State, this is very Huckabee-friendly territory and a Huckabee victory here solidifies Mike’s status as frontrunner.

Finally, here’s what things look like in Florida, a state with a ‘winner take all’ delegate process and where Rudy has staked his claim to get back in the national race:

Florida Republican Primary
Tuesday, January 29 | Delegates at Stake: 114
Poll	Date	Giuliani	Huckabee	Romney	McCain	Thompson	Paul	Spread
RCP Average	12/12 to 01/07	26.5	21.3	16.5	14.3	8.5	3.7	Giuliani +5.2
InsiderAdvantage	01/07 – 01/07	24	19	13	19	8	5	Giuliani +5.0
Quinnipiac	12/12 – 12/18	28	21	20	13	8	2	Giuliani +7.0
SurveyUSA	12/15 – 12/16	29	24	20	10	8	–	Giuliani +5.0
Strategic Vision (R)	12/14 – 12/16	25	21	13	15	10	4	Giuliani +4.0
See More Florida Republican Primary Polls | Chart

Again, notice how well Huckabee is playing in the diverse state. Expect his numbers there to climb with a victory in South Carolina. A Huckabee win in Florida will significantly diminish Rudy’s hopes.

Finally, check out Joe Carter’s (of The Evangelical Outpost) blog with his thoughts post-NH; and also John Ellis’ excellent article about Huckabee’s path to the nomination here.